What’s Really Behind the Illusion of Flat Home Prices

Lately, many real estate reports suggest that home prices are holding steady. On the surface, that may appear to be the case. However, the reality is a bit more complex.

Across most markets, home prices haven’t actually remained steady.

What the Numbers Actually Tell Us

Although home prices have moderated since the sharp and unsustainable growth of 2020–2022, the degree of change differs from market to market.
According to data from ResiClub and Zillow on the 50 largest metropolitan areas, the trend is evenly divided. Roughly half continue to see prices rise modestly, while the rest are witnessing slight decreases (see graph below).

The main point is that “flat” doesn’t imply uniformity across all markets. The figures reveal significant variation in price trends from one area to another.

One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains:

“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

When these varied market trends are averaged together, the result appears “flat.” However, that average obscures the true picture — and doesn’t reflect what most markets are currently experiencing. You deserve a clearer understanding than that.

For those focusing on the areas where prices are softening, it’s worth noting that these are primarily markets that saw unusually rapid growth in prior years. Home prices have climbed about 50% nationwide over the past five years, with even greater gains in some regions now adjusting downward. As a result, modest declines still leave most homeowners in a strong equity position. Moreover, based on current market fundamentals, experts do not anticipate a national price drop in the months ahead.

So, what does that mean for you?

If You’re Buying...

Understanding your local market conditions is key. They determine how quickly you may need to act on a property and how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do.

In markets where prices continue to rise, delaying a purchase could lead to higher costs down the road.
Conversely, in areas where prices are softening, buyers may have greater flexibility to request concessions such as repairs or closing cost assistance.

The takeaway: being informed about your area’s trends gives you control and confidence in your decisions.

If You’re Selling...

Being aware of local market trends is essential for determining an appropriate listing price and understanding how much room there is for negotiation.

In markets where prices continue to rise, sellers often have the advantage and may not need to make significant compromises.
However, in areas experiencing price declines, accurate pricing from the outset and a willingness to negotiate are critical for attracting buyers.

The takeaway: sellers benefit from working with a knowledgeable local agent who can guide pricing decisions — because well-priced homes are still selling.

What’s Really Happening in Your Neighborhood

The national averages can point to broad trends, and that's helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it:

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”

For both buyers and sellers, the smartest approach is to partner with a local agent who understands your specific market.

A knowledgeable agent can provide the data and expertise to determine if local prices are stable, increasing, or softening — and explain how those trends may influence your transaction.

Key Takeaways:

While headlines may highlight “flat” home prices, they don’t provide the complete picture.

Has anyone taken the time to walk you through current trends in our local market?

If you’d like an accurate view of what’s happening with prices in our area, reach out — let’s Connect!